Scenario-based Comparative Assessment of Potential Future Electricity Systems

In the paper "Scenario-based comparative assessment of potential future electricity systems - A new methodological approach using Germany in 2015 as an example" a new method for the evaluation and comparison of potential future electricity systems is presented. Based on a comprehensive scenario analysis defining a corridor for possible shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources (FRES) residual loads are calculated in a unified manner. The residual loads are input for an algorithm that defines a supplementary mix of technologies providing flexibility to the system. The overall system layout guarantees the balance of generation and demand at all times. Due to the fact that the same method for residual load calculation and mixture of technologies is applied for all scenarios, a good comparability is guaranteed and the authors are able to identify key characteristics for future developments. The unique feature of the new algorithms presented here is the very fast calculation for a year-long simulation with hourly or shorter time steps taking into account the state of charge or availability of all storage and flexibility technologies. This allows an analysis of many different scenarios on a macro-economic level, variation of input parameters can easily be done, and extensive sensitivity analysis is possible.

The paper by Benedikt Lunza, Philipp Stöckera, Sascha Eckstein, Arjuna Nebel, Sascha Samadi, Berit Erlach, Manfred Fischedick, Peter Elsner, Dirk Uwe Sauer was published in Applied Energy, volume 171, and is available for download via ScienceDirect.

An extensive analysis of options for the design of potential German energy supply systems in 2050 based on the presented methodology will be published in a follow-up paper.