Uncertainty Management and the Dynamic Adjustment of Deep Decarbonization Pathways

Contrary to "static" pathways that are defined once for all, this article deals with the need for policy makers to adopt a dynamic adaptive policy pathway for managing decarbonization over the period of implementation. When choosing a pathway as the most desirable option, it is important to keep in mind that each decarbonization option relies on the implementation of specific policies and instruments. Given structural, effectiveness, and timing uncertainties specific to each policy option, they may fail in delivering the expected outcomes in time. The possibility of diverging from an initial decarbonization trajectory to another one without incurring excessive costs should therefore be a strategic element in the design of an appropriate decarbonization strategy. The article "Uncertainty Management and the Dynamic Adjustment of Deep Decarbonization Pathways" relies on initial experiences in France and Germany on decarbonization planning and implementation to define elements for managing dynamic adjustment issues and the "Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project"; the Wuppertal Institute contributed the country study of Germany. Research questions connected to monitoring are of special interest and urgency following the Paris Agreement in 2015. It calls on all countries to monitor the implementation of their national contributions and review their ambition regularly.

The article was published in the special edition "The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project: Insights and Emerging Issues" of the journal "Climate Policy". It is available online.