Affordable Heating without Fossil Gas

Fossil gas imports are an expensive resource in the long run. Reducing gas consumption is therefore not only an important step on the way to climate neutrality, but also essential to stop the rising heating costs caused by Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. In addition, the planned permanent LNG terminals would not be necessary. This is the finding of a study by the think tank E3G in cooperation with the Wuppertal Institute, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis and the consultancy Neon Neue Energieökonomik.

According to the researchers, the total economic costs of purchasing natural gas in Germany will increase by 15 to 25 billion euros annually from 2023 to 2030. The building sector offers great savings potential here, with 40 percent more savings possible by the end of the decade than the German government has planned so far. With ambitious investments in the building sector more gas could be saved in this decade than the two new permanent LNG terminals planned for 2027 and 2028 are expected to deliver. 

In the first part, the research focuses on forecasting the costs of German natural gas imports beyond the current crisis. In the second part, the researchers outline a "future programme for sustainable heating" that should allow Germany to avoid large parts of its natural gas consumption before the end of this decade.
For consumers, the study finds that gas prices will remain high until the end of 2030. According to the study, the gas bill of an average family heating with gas would double from 1370 euros to 2620 euros and the price increase would also mean higher costs for companies. According to the researchers, the German government can protect both households and businesses from these high costs by taking advantage of the great savings potential in the building sector. "Not only can the Future Programme for Sustainable Heating reduce CO2 emissions in the building sector by almost two thirds by 2030. From then on, the users of the buildings will save a net amount of close to 10 billion euros each year for heating and hot water," continues Dr. Stefan Thomas, Director of the Research Division Energy, Transport and Climate Policy at the Wuppertal Institute. Accordingly, the long-term goal should be to accelerate the energy transition in the building sector instead of relying on expensive imports. 

Dr. Stefan Thomas, Florin Vondung, Senior Researcher in the Research Unit Energy Policy and Dr. Sascha Samadi, Co-Head of the Research Unit Sectors and Technologies, as well as Clemens Schneider, Senior Researcher  in the Research Unit Sectors and Technologies at the Wuppertal Institute, contributed to the study.

Further information and the study are available in the following link.