Top 10 Publications of 2024

Each year, the Wuppertal Institute presents the ten most important peer-reviewed publications of the past year. With this selection from 2024, the institute aims to highlight central scientific contributions by its researchers and to provide insights into the current state of its internationally recognised research.
 

Seven articles from 2024 were selected on the topic of climate, energy, and resource transition.

Born-circular start-ups, whose business models are based on circular economy, play a central role in establishing circular processes. However, they often lack legitimacy and trust from implementation partners. Certifications such as Cradle to Cradle (C2C) can help address this issue.
So far, however, structured tools for developing C2C business models have been lacking. In the Journal of Cleaner Production, Alexa Böckel from the Circular Transitions Research Unit and Kim-Mai Hoang from the Technical University of Munich present a new approach in their article "Cradle-to-cradle business model tool: Innovating circular business models for startups": the C2C Business Model Tool. It systematically supports founders in developing their business models and communicating with partners. The tool was developed using a design science approach, tested in workshops, and subsequently validated with eight start-ups – receiving consistently positive feedback.
 

In the article "The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe", published in Nature Communications, Johannes Thema from the Energy Policy Research Unit, along with 21 other scientists, presents a 1.5-degree compatible pathway for Europe with low energy demand, based on bottom-up modeling at the national level. The findings indicate that by 2050, Europe’s final energy demand could be reduced by 50 per cent compared to 2019, with at least 40 per cent of these savings in the scenario resulting from various sufficiency measures across all sectors. Such a reduction would enable renewables to account for 77 per cent of the energy mix by 2040, reaching 100 per cent by 2050 – while requiring only minimal imports from outside Europe, without relying on nuclear energy, and with almost no CO₂ capture.
Sufficiency also contributes to equalising energy service indicators, such as per-capita passenger-kilometers or living space, leading to a fairer distribution among European countries. The analysis shows that with sufficiency measures, Europe has the opportunity to significantly reduce its energy demand – thereby lowering the costs of the energy transition and swiftly returning to the 1.5-degree pathway.
 

Nicolas Kreibich from the Global Climate Governance Research Unit examines the development of the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) since the 2015 Paris Agreement and its relationship with the United Nations (UN) climate regime in his article "Toward Global Net Zero: The Voluntary Carbon Market on Its Quest to Find Its Place in the Post-Paris Climate Regime". Prior to the adoption of the Paris Agreement, the VCM and the UN carbon market largely operated in parallel. The Paris Agreement triggered a surge in net-zero and climate neutrality targets among companies, driving increased interest in the VCM as a source of carbon credits for offsetting emissions. At the same time, doubts arose about the offsetting model and concerns over double counting emerged, casting uncertainty on the VCM's future. A shift from the offsetting model to a climate contribution approach, aimed at mobilising private climate finance, could help the VCM overcome its "identity crisis" and carve out a new role within the evolving climate regime.
 

No governmental or non-governmental entity can tackle climate change on their own – this is why polycentric governance is gaining attention. However, empirical evidence on the climate change mitigation potential of polycentric policymaking remains limited, particularly in the Global South. In their study "Promises and Pitfalls of Polycentric Federalism: The Case of Solar Power in India", Dr. Chris Höhne from the Global Climate Governance Research Unit, along with four other researchers, explores the opportunities and challenges of polycentric climate policy in three Indian states by analysing the development of solar energy, with a particular focus on scaling and institutionalisation in federal systems. 
The findings indicate that, regardless of political orientation, the states are driving the transition forward and play a crucial role in overcoming political barriers. However, there are only few successful non-governmental or urban bottom-up initiatives that have been institutionalised in the long run.
 

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is being discussed worldwide as a potential technological approach to reducing industrial emissions. Public acceptance is crucial in this context, yet many people are unfamiliar with the technology. In their article "Understanding public acceptance amidst controversy and ignorance: the case of industrial carbon capture and storage in Germany", Felix Große-Kreul, Laura Altstadt, Aileen Reichmann, Nora Weber, and Katja Witte from the Future Energy and Industry Systems Research Division introduce a new approach to measuring public opinion. Their study primarily analyses the perspectives of individuals who consider themselves knowledgeable about industrial CCS (iCCS).

A survey conducted in Germany with 1,845 participants reveals that acceptance of iCCS is influenced by five key factors:

• The more strongly people perceive local climate change as a threat, the higher their acceptance of iCCS.
• Respondents who see more benefits than drawbacks are more likely to support iCCS.
• Acceptance is stronger among those who consider iCCS necessary for mitigating unavoidable emissions in hard-to-decarbonise industries.
• The belief that iCCS should serve as a bridging technology until sufficient renewable energy is available to replace fossil fuels correlates with higher acceptance.
• Respondents who are more open to local CO₂ storage tend to have a generally more favorable view of iCCS.

At the same time, the survey highlights significant concerns about CO₂ transportation. Many respondents also express a lack of trust in industry actors and energy providers to make responsible decisions regarding the use of iCCS.

The most promising approach to reducing CO₂ emissions in steel production is direct reduction using green hydrogen. The resulting green iron does not become liquid in the process but is produced as solid, spherical sponge iron, which can be transported cost-effectively over long distances. This allows for a spatial separation of iron production and steel production, potentially leading to a global trade in green iron. In their article "Global Trade of Green Iron as a Game Changer for a Near-Zero Global Steel Industry? – A Scenario-Based Assessment of Regionalized Impacts", researchers Süheyb Bilici, Dr. Georg Holtz, and Alexander Jülich from the Sectors and Technologies Research Unit, along with other researchers, evaluate the potential impacts of such global trade. They consider both the shift in global energy demand towards regions with favorable conditions for hydrogen production and the potential resulting cost savings. The authors compare three scenarios and discuss the prerequisites and obstacles for a global trade in green iron. The analysis suggests that the cost savings could significantly contribute to the development of net-zero steel production. However, practical implementation depends on various factors, including certification issues, the pace of renewable energy expansion, and strategic global partnerships in the green iron market.
 

In the study "Country Risks Analysis for the Development of Green Hydrogen and Synthetic Fuel Sectors in the MENA Region", Dr. Julia Terrapon-Pfaff, Sibel Raquel Ersoy, and PD Dr. Peter Viebahn from the Future Energy and Industry Systems Research Division, along with Magdolna Prantner from Geisenheim University, investigate the role of hydrogen in decarbonising the energy and industrial sectors. The European Union, with Germany at the forefront, plans to import significant quantities of hydrogen in the medium to long term and views the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) as a potential major supplier of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels. However, investment risks represent a significant barrier to the development of the green hydrogen industry in the MENA region. To date, there have been only few systematic risk analyses for these sectors in MENA countries. The researchers address this gap by presenting a comparative risk assessment for renewable energy, green hydrogen, and synthetic fuels in 17 MENA countries. They evaluate macro- and micro-risks and consider two risk scenarios for future developments. The results indicate that while MENA countries have significant potential, the majority exhibit at least moderate risks for sector development, highlighting the complexity of promoting these industries in the region.

Consumer behaviour

The study "The Impact of Biodiversity Information on Willingness to Pay", conducted by Dr. Kathleen Jacobs from the Circular Transitions Research Unit, in collaboration with Prof. Dr. Jacob Hörisch from Leuphana University Lüneburg and Prof. Dr. Lars Petersen from Alanus University of Arts and Social Sciences, investigates how information about the positive or negative biodiversity performance of a product influences consumers' willingness to pay. Data were collected from 524 German consumers. The results indicate that consumers with higher education levels and strong concerns about biodiversity loss are willing to pay more for products with above-average biodiversity performance (positive information) and less for products with below-average performance (negative information). However, the authors find that the extent to which a product outperforms the industry average does not influence consumers’ increased willingness to pay. This means that both marginal and substantial improvements in product-related biodiversity would be rewarded with the same willingness to pay.
The researchers conclude that consumers alone are unlikely to provide sufficient monetary incentives to achieve substantial improvements in biodiversity conservation. Therefore, policymakers, for example, need to introduce subsidies for products with biodiversity performance far above the industry average or ban products that perform significantly below the industry average.
 

In industrial design, project-based learning with a focus on "learning by doing" is the predominant teaching method. Learners are encouraged to engage with complex problems, such as those related to sustainability. However, it remains unclear how motivation in projects can be activated to address these challenges and promote environmentally friendly behavior. In the paper "Circular Economy from Scratch: A Novel Project-Based Learning Method to Increase Motivation in Metal Recycling Among Industrial Design Students", Konrad Schoch, Dr. Manuel Bickel, and Prof. Dr. Christa Liedtke from the Sustainable Production and Consumption Research Division, along with Prof. Dr. Fabian Hemmer from the University of Wuppertal, present a project-based teaching method linked to a normative decision-making model from social psychology. This method aims to motivate students, using generative toolkits among other resources, to explore ways to improve metal recycling and develop competencies on the metal, alloy, product, and system level. The paper demonstrates which specific intervention measures are suitable and how they can be methodically applied. Preliminary evaluation results suggest that the project-based teaching method can indeed strongly motivate the target group.
 

Transdisciplinary methods

To assess the societal impacts of real-world laboratories, Matthias Wanner from the Innovation Labs Research Unit, together with Prof. Dr. Karolin Augenstein from University of Wuppertal, Prof. Dr. Timo von Wirth from Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, and Prof. Dr. Daniel Lang from Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, applied structuration theory in their article "Impacts of urban real-world labs: insights from a co-evaluation process informed by structuration theory in Wuppertal-Mirke". The authors used this theory to analyse the effects of six co-productive urban design projects carried out in the Mirke district of Wuppertal. Additionally, they expanded structuration theory by introducing new subcategories.
 

All Open Access articles are available on the Wuppertal Institute’s publication server via the links below. If you are interested in articles that are not Open Access, please contact us here.