Development of Scenarios

  • Project no. 4160
  • Duration 11/2001 - 08/2002

On behalf of the German Parliament's study commission "Sustainable Energy Supply under the Conditions of Globalisation and Liberalisation" different development routes were outlined that could be able to lead to a sustainable energy supply. The study showed that only an energy supply basing on a successive extension of renewable energies and on promoting the saving of energy can guarantee this aim under the condition of abandoning to re-enter nuclear power generation (Installation of 50 to 70 new power plants on the middle and long term) and avoiding dependency structures related to uncertainties in the context of introducing a CO2-supply infrastructure.
The calculated resulting economic charge for the period under review (2000 to 2050) could be kept within a limit accounting for about 40 billion Euro, accumulated and discounted. Additional costs of 3,8 billion Euro per year respectively less than 50 Euro per capita and year are to expect (versus reference development). On the other side, the positive economic effects have to be taken into consideration which consist in avoiding risks, upgrading the energy supply security (decrease of import quota) and in increasing employment incentives especially in the building and renewables sector.