Green hydrogen (H2) plays a key role in the transformation of the energy and raw materials supply towards climate neutrality. For this reason, ambitious targets have already been set for the production and use of climate-friendly hydrogen by 2030, in Germany as well as in the EU and most of its member states. Political strategies at all levels rely heavily on imports to meet demand:
- the EU expects around 50 per cent of hydrogen to come from neighbouring regions
- the German government expects an import share of 50 to 70 per cent by 2030
- the import demand of North Rhine-Westphalia is estimated at around 30 per cent of national demand and a maximum of 10 per cent of NRW's demand is to be covered by production within the federal state
Yet the question remains as to which countries will actually be able to supply hydrogen in relevant quantities until 2030.
The aim of this short study, which was commissioned by the State Association for Renewable Energies NRW, is therefore to investigate the extent to which other – particularly European – countries will be able to do this in the foreseeable future. The study sheds light on the current state of the H2 ramp-up in Europe and the achievement of the H2 targets as well as the progress of important production and infrastructure projects. On this basis, the Authors assess the prospects for relevant H2 imports to Germany until 2030. The study focuses on the following analyses:
- A presentation of the national H2 targets and strategies of relevant European countries and the EU as a whole, as well as an assessment of the current status of their target achievement based on realised, under-construction and announced H2 projects
- An analysis and assessment of important European H2 import routes and of related exemplary infrastructure and production projects
- An exemplary analysis and evaluation of imports from global sweet spots outside the EU (ammonia instead of H2)
- An outlook on obstacles and prospects for H2 imports until 2030 and a classification in the political context