In 2021, the scenario study "Towards a Climate-Neutral Germany by 2045" showed for the first time how Germany could become climate-neutral by 2045 and reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 65 per cent by 2030 compared to 1990. Around three years later, it was foreseeable that the sector-specific greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set for 2030 in the Federal Climate Change Act would most likely not be met, at least in the transport and buildings sectors. In addition, the economy developed much differently than previously expected due to the coronavirus pandemic and the consequences of the Russian attack on Ukraine.
Agora Energiewende, Agora Verkehrswende, Agora Industrie and Agora Agrar have therefore commissioned the scientific partners behind the 2021 study to update the scenario.
The Wuppertal Institute is involved in this project as a subcontractor of Prognos and – as in the previous study and in collaboration with the University of Kassel – is responsible for developing the scenario for the industrial sector. The technologically detailed bottom-up modelling tools of the Wuppertal Institute are used to this end. The new scenario takes into account, among other things, recent announcements by companies on future investment projects and reflects the tightening of EU emissions trading, according to which no new CO2 certificates will be available for industry and the energy sector from around 2040. In addition to the development of the industrial sector in the main scenario of the study, the scientists of the Wuppertal Institute and the University of Kassel also analyse several sensitivities with alternative developments in the sector.