Energy Transition as a Central Building Block of a Future Industrial Policy - Analysis of Energy Transition Scenarios

  • Project no. 151129
  • Duration 01/2017 - 10/2017

The German-Japanese Energy Transition Council (GJETC) intends to foster a scientific debate on common and diverging perspectives for both opportunities and risks of a transition towards a sustainable energy system. Therefore, the GJETC is conducting a comprehensive study programme, built on bilateral consortia of renowned research institutes. Within the framework of this study programme, five strategic topics were identified that are of common interest for both the Japanese and the German side.

This study conducted by the Wuppertal Institute together with DIW Econ and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ) addresses one of these topics, the strategic topic 1: "Energy transition as a central building block of a future industrial policy - Analysis of energy transition scenarios". The main objective of this study is to examine the wide range of strategic options for the energy transition as well as the associated strengths and weaknesses of both countries in a transparent way and from different perspectives.

First, the national energy transition targets and the range of existing research-based, long-term scenarios including those that are in line with or go beyond the official national targets are identified. In the next step, a comprehensive meta-analysis of 3-5 of these energy transition scenarios will be conducted for each country. The selected scenarios should cover a wide range of long-term strategic options for both Germany and Japan. Besides the implication of the transition strategies for the energy system, a particular focus will lie on the (macro) economic implications of the transition strategies. The results of this analysis are then discussed in form of mutual commenting by the involved Japanese and German research institutes. Following these discussions, the country teams will prepare a joint conclusion that will focus on policy recommendations for Germany and Japan. Finally, based on the analysis, the conclusions drawn and the discussions within and between the country teams, open research questions of key interest for the successful transformation of the energy system in both countries will be identified.