Simulation modelling is useful to understand the mechanisms of the diffusion of innovations, which can be used to forecast the future of innovations. This study aims to make the identification of such mechanisms less costly in time and labor. The authors present an approach that automates the generation of diffusion models. They implemented their approach in a working software, testing and applying it to the diffusion of water-saving shower heads. Their software successfully generated simulation models that explained diffusion data. This progresses agent-based modelling methodologically by enabling detailed modelling at relative simplicity for users, thus widening the circle of persons that can use simulation to shape innovation.
The paper "Automating agent-based modeling: Data-driven generation and application of innovation diffusion models" by Thorben Jensen and Émile J.L. Chappin was published in Environmental Modelling & Software, volume 92, and is available for purchase via ScienceDirect.