In future, it is highly probable that the heat supply structure of buildings especially in new constructions will change significantly. In the face of increasing demands of energy and climate policy, alternative supply systems are gaining importance while the overall demand for heat is declining. The increasing pressure to reduce the need to anthropogenic CO2 emissions very quickly and very dramatically, requires in the coming decades, not only for new construction, but also for the existing buildings a radical restructuring of energy systems towards long term sustainable structures. This can be observed in the energy concept of the Federal Government, for example by the objective of a significant increase in the energy-related rate and the gradual reduction in emissions from existing buildings to a zero emission level on average in 2050. In addition to increasing energy efficiency on the demand and supply side, renewable energy plays a key role in solving the climate, but also the energy supply problems.
Given the anticipated upcoming massive structural changes in energy supply and the further tightened requirements for building energy efficiency, it appears necessary for Vaillant as a product supplier of heat supply systems, to quickly narrow the uncertainties regarding the future development of better quality. To achieve this objective, robust future development paths in the heating market at a national (work package 1) and at European level (work package 2) with the help of scenario analysis are to be shown in the study.
In work package 1, different paths for the future of Germany are analysed and robust lines of development for the future are formulated using a scenario analysis. The scenarios are based on different assumptions and methods. If they come to similar conclusions about future developments, this will be a strong indication of probable (robust) changes. In particular, determinants of the heat market are considered from this perspective. Due to the current high dynamics the study of national scenarios is to be supplemented by considerations to the level of cities and municipalities (low-carbon city concepts).
In a second step, the perspective is expanded from the national to the European level. Work package 2, which is therefore analogous to WP1, examines the same issues, this time with the help of selected European climate protection scenarios. Subject of the investigation are the countries of the EU 27. Moreover, the fundamental transferability of research results to specific markets in individual EU countries will be briefly outlined and the work required for detailed studies will be specified following that direction.