Climate Neutral Germany 2050/2045

  • Project no.152179, 152319
  • Duration 04/2020 - 06/2021

Commissioned by Agora Energiewende, Agora Verkehrswende and Stiftung Klimaneutralität, Prognos, the Öko-Institut, and the Wuppertal Institute are developing scientifically sound strategies and measures for Germany's climate neutrality in the European context until 2050. The majority of the climate protection scenarios developed in recent years are based on the Federal Government's emissions target of minus 80 to minus 95 per cent compared to 1990 as the target corridor. However, the reduction of the last 5 per cent for reaching climate neutrality represents an extreme challenge.

In the context of the European discussion on tightening the climate targets for 2030, the level of ambition for greenhouse gas reduction by 2030 is of particular interest. The project researchers consider two variants: a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 65 per cent compared to 1990 (main scenario) and a reduction by 60 per cent (minimum variant).

The scenarios cover all sectors and their interactions: energy, industry, buildings, transport, agriculture, Land use, land-use change, and forestry as well as waste. The researchers of the Future Energy and Industrial Systems Division at the Wuppertal Institute are responsible for the development of the scenarios of the industry sector. The industry scenarios are developed using the Wuppertal Institute System Model Architecture for Energy and Emission Scenarios – Energy Demand Model (WISEE-EDM), which simulates the development of the industrial plant park as well as industrial energy requirements and CO2 emissions over time, taking into account production volumes, reinvestment cycles, technological development and (site-specific) availability of energy carriers.

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