Quantification of the Greenhouse Gas Reduction Potential of Conceivable Climate Protection Policy Measures in Bavaria

  • Project no.152710
  • Duration 11/2021 - 03/2022

On behalf of the parliamentary group Alliance 90/The Greens in the Bavarian State Parliament (BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN), researchers of the Wuppertal Institute have examined how many greenhouse gas emissions could potentially be saved in 2030 by various climate protection measures. The study "Quantification of the greenhouse gas reduction potential of possible climate protection policy measures in Bavaria for the year 2030" estimates both the effects of the measures on the total greenhouse gas emissions caused and on the emissions statistically recorded in Bavaria itself.
The measures address the following five areas:

  • Buildings and means of transport owned by the public sector
  • Expansion of wind energy and photovoltaics
  • Energy efficiency in the building sector
  • Energy efficiency and modal shift in the transport sector
  • Agriculture and land use.

Two examples of the measures examined are improvements in the framework conditions for the construction of new wind power plants and a greater use of industrial waste heat.

Since the future achievable greenhouse gas reductions of individual measures are uncertain due to a multitude of influencing factors that cannot be predicted exactly, the scientists derive a low, a medium and a high estimate of the emission reductions to be expected in 2030 for each measure. The assumptions made for the quantification of the relevant influencing factors were listed transparently in the project report and were made under the basic assumption that the current energy and climate policy goals of the German government for 2030 will be achieved.

Finally, the researchers added up the total emission reductions that can be achieved by all the examined measures, avoiding double counting of emission reductions by taking into account interactions between the measures. Then, on the basis of the emission reductions determined, they discussed what contribution the considered measures could make to achieving Bavaria's current climate protection target by 2030 (a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 65 percent compared to 1990).

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