The Paris Agreement represents an important new strategic context for EU climate policy. Analysing the implications of this new context requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining perspectives on the evolution of the international climate governance with analyses of the national efforts (NDC s) of key countries and their socio-economic implications.
The analysis will underpin the UNFCCC's "facilitative dialogue" scheduled for 2018 with a view to creating the conditions for the revision of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2020.
The project has four objectives:
1. Assess the adequacy of the NDCs submitted at COP21 in light of the global temperature target of limiting warming to 2 °C / 1.5 °C.
Through the analysis of GHG scenarios and energy system scenarios, the project will pay particular attention to the concrete system changes induced by NDCs, and compare them with the changes required to meet the global temperature limit. The project will also analyse scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C, and the impact of NDCs on other sectors, in particular land-use.
2. Assess the implications of NDCs and deeper mitigation pathways on other European socio-economic objectives.
By integrating GHG and energy system scenarios into a range of different macro-economic, global energy system models and other quantified methodologies, the project will investigate implications for European socio-economic objectives related to innovation and technology deployment; trade and competitiveness; investment, financial flows and economic growth ("green growth"); and global energy markets and energy security.
3. Assess the adequacy of international climate governance after COP21.
The project will identify sector-specific governance challenges and will analyse to what extent these challenges are being addressed. The analysis does not only consider the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, but takes into account the wider climate governance architecture including a host of other inter- and transnational governance institutions.
4. Develop policy recommendations for EU climate policy and diplomacy.