Fossil Free Energy for the European Transport Sector

The transport sector is responsible for over a fifth of Germany's greenhouse gas emissions, and at European level even for more than a quarter. In order to achieve the EU's climate targets – and, from a German perspective, to avoid billions in fines or the purchase of pollution rights from other countries – massive efforts will be required in the coming years, particularly in the transport sector. In addition to avoiding and shifting traffic, the focus of solutions for private motorised transport is on electric vehicles, but other approaches are needed for trucks and aircraft. Synthetic fuels could be a promising solution in this regard.

Against this background, researchers from the Wuppertal Institute have carried out a model-based analysis that outlines the technical potentials and investment risks of the MENA region with regard to the production and export of synthetic fuels to Europe: Using a cost-optimised energy supply model, the authors analyse the potential role of the MENA region in meeting the future demand for synthetic fuels in Europe, taking into account production, storage and transport of electricity, hydrogen and synthetic fuels. Various scenarios are used to map regional differences in investment risks: a base scenario in which regional differences in investment risks are not taken into account, and three risk scenarios with different developments in regional investment risks.

The results show that imports from the MENA region can be an attractive option from an economic perspective, preferably in the form of the end product, i.e. synthetic fuels. However, taking into account the investment risks, the analysis shows that lower import quotas for synthetic fuels would be more attractive for Europe, as the higher production costs in Europe would be offset to a certain extent by the lower investment risks. The technical potential for renewable energy in Europe is also sufficiently high to meet future demand for electricity and synthetic fuels, the researchers said. Overall, the results show that the consideration of country-specific investment risks in techno-economic modelling is of crucial importance.

The analysis "Providing the transport sector in Europe with fossil free energy – a model-based analysis under consideration of the MENA region" was published in the journal frontiers and can be downloaded free of charge via the following link. The results are based on the MENA Fuels project, which also is linked below.