Baseload Power Plants are Not Essential for Future Power Systems

The ongoing decarbonisation of energy systems worldwide has sparked a controversial debate about the necessity of baseload power plants: There is still skepticism in parts of economy, politics, and society, especially with regard to security of supply and the economic efficiency of energy systems, particularly electricity systems, which in the future will be based mainly on low-cost renewable energies. With this in mind, the German Academies’ project "Energy Systems of the Future" (ESYS) has analysed the role of baseload power plants within a decarbonised, continental-scale energy system. The results show: A secure, net-zero European electricity system is technically robust and economically viable when based on variable renewable energy sources paired with extensive flexibility, storage, and grid interconnections – without requiring new baseload capacity.

Reality check: Are baseload power plants economically viable?

To determine the economic viability of additional baseload power plants, the researchers modeled the cost-optimal expansion of the European energy system to 2045, making a generic baseload technology available under varying cost assumptions. The results show: A substantial baseload expansion capable of displacing investment in renewables only happens under the assumption of very low – in today’s perspective, likely unrealistic – cost assumptions for the baseload technologies. In all other cases, renewable energies are the more sensible and economically advantageous option.

The debate about baseload power needs to evolve

"The system level modeling results are not a knock-out criterion for new baseload power plants and technologies. However, our findings show that new baseload power plants are not necessary for a secure and climate-neutral electricity grid in Europe," says Prof. Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, President and Scientific Director of the Wuppertal Institute, one of the authors of the article, adding: "If technological breakthroughs substantially reduce the costs of baseload power plants in the future and electricity demand continues to rise significantly, baseload power plants could become an option to supplement renewable energies, provided they are not ruled out on risk considerations. From today's perspective, however, this is hardly realistic before the middle of the century, if at all. Until then, additional baseload power plants are and will remain a costly and uncertain detour from the main road of the energy transition."

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