ScientificModelling
Understanding and shaping the ongoing transformation processes towards sustainability often requires analysing complex interrelationships and processing large amounts of data. To this end, researchers at the Wuppertal Institute are developing bespoke computer-based simulation and optimisation models.
What could a future viable, sustainable energy system look like? Which factors influence Germany’s transition to a sustainable industrial location? How can the circular economy change resource consumption? And what impact do changing production and consumption systems have on energy requirements?
The Wuppertal Institute is answering these and other questions with the help of various computer-based simulation and optimisation models, among other approaches. In very general terms, these models serve as an abstract representation of reality that is harnessed when it is not possible to directly examine the object itself. Central to this process is the use of empirical data sets, on which extensive calculations are conducted. The models developed serve as tools for examining various future scenarios and deriving recommendations for action.
The following overview lists some of the models developed at the Wuppertal Institute. References to more detailed descriptions can be found under the respective brief description of the models.
ITOM
The Industry Transformation Optimisation Model (ITOM) is a modelling framework that provides building blocks and components for creating comprehensive industrial system models, which are typically used to develop and analyse transformation processes aiming to achieve sustainability. ITOM creates geographically detailed techno-economic models based on the bottom-up principle. The model optimises both investments in and the operation of production facilities, as well as the exchange of industrial intermediate products between production sites over a specified period of time. The model determines a solution entailing minimal total costs, while considering constraints such as emission limits, raw material availability and quality requirements for the end products. A brief description of the model is available at the link below. The open source code can also be found on GitHub and detailed model documentation is provided on ReadTheDocs.
ITOM-Petchem
ITOM-Petchem uses the ITOM framework to map the European petrochemical industry. The model covers the entire value chain from crude oil processing in refineries all the way through to the production of polymers. ITOM-Petchem includes all the petrochemical production sites and their transport links within European countries and takes regional differences in energy and raw material costs into account. The model is deployed to create future scenarios and to quantitatively examine and present the potential transformation of the petrochemical industry towards climate neutrality and non-fossil raw materials under various assumptions. The focus is on the production of high-value chemicals as building blocks for polymer production by way of a variety of conventional (fossil) and alternative (green) routes. A brief description of the model is linked below, while a detailed model description and model data can be found on Zenodo.
ITOM-Steel
ITOM-Steel harnesses the ITOM framework to model the European steel sector. The model covers the entire value chain from raw material processing and the production of iron and crude steel and on to the processing of long and flat steel products. ITOM-Steel covers all major production sites in Europe and takes regional differences in energy and raw material costs into account.
The model serves to create future scenarios and to quantitatively examine and present the European steel industry's transformation towards climate neutrality under various assumptions. To this end, various CO2 reduction options are mapped, such as increased steel recycling, the use of hydrogen and natural gas as reducing agents instead of coal, as well as carbon capture and storage (CCS). A brief description of the model is linked below, and the detailed model description and model data can be found on Zenodo.
ITOM-Cement
ITOM-Cement draws on the ITOM framework to map the European cement sector. The model covers the entire value chain from the extraction of limestone through to the use of cement in concrete construction. ITOM-Cement includes all production sites for cement clinker – the central binding component of cement – in Europe, while taking regional differences in energy and raw material costs into account.
The model is employed to create future scenarios and to examine and present the potential transformation of the cement sector towards climate neutrality under various assumptions and in quantitative terms. To this end, the model maps various CO2 reduction options: from fuel switching and the use of alternative raw materials and on to CCS. A brief description of the model is linked below, and a detailed model description including model data can be found on Zenodo
WESOM
WESOM stands for Wuppertal Energy Supply Optimisation Model, which is a linear optimisation model for long-term planning and evaluation of energy systems. It models and evaluates spatially and temporally differentiated transformation pathways of the energy system in order to meet the demand for energy sources such as electricity or hydrogen. The model illustrates how generation plants, storage facilities, and transport infrastructures can be expanded and operated in a cost-effective manner to meet energy demand, while taking into account exogenous framework conditions such as limits on greenhouse gas emissions. The following links provide both a brief and a detailed model description.
HEAT
The HEAT (Household Energy and Appliances Modelling Tool) model enables the detailed mapping of energy consumption and emissions in the household and small-scale consumption sector (commerce, trade and services), as well as the impacts of technical and behavioural measures on these areas.
HEAT integrates detailed data on building components such as roofs, exterior walls, basement ceilings and windows, as well as heating and hot water systems. In addition, around 400 building-specific efficiency and renovation measures are taken into account. With this approach, HEAT enables a comprehensive assessment of renovation options in terms of energy efficiency, emission reduction and the use of resources. Modelling is possible at different spatial levels – from national down to municipal levels.
Projects
Below you will find selected projects in which the models mentioned are and have been applied.